Improving Demand-Based Ordering Accuracy and Distribution Centre Service Levels for One of the Largest Supermarket Retailers

The Retailer is one of the largest supermarket chains in its market, operating a multi-format store network supported by a distribution centre network that replenishes fresh, chilled, and ambient goods across the business. Store-level ordering and distribution centre operations directly determine on-shelf availability for millions of weekly transactions.

• Store-level ordering not consistently aligned to actual demand patterns, leading to both stockouts and overstock across categories
• Distribution centre service levels falling short of on-time, in-full (OTIF) targets to stores
• Limited demand-based ordering tools, with many replenishment decisions still made on manual or rule-of-thumb bases
• Inconsistent distribution centre processes across categories such as fresh, chilled, and ambient, affecting order accuracy and fulfilment speed
• Limited visibility into root causes of OTIF misses, slowing corrective action

• On-shelf availability is a direct driver of supermarket sales and customer loyalty, as every percentage point of stockout translates directly into lost basket value
• OTIF performance is a standard industry benchmark for distribution centre effectiveness, with leading grocery retailers typically targeting OTIF rates in the mid-90s percent or higher (approx., industry benchmark)
• Demand-based ordering is increasingly essential as assortment complexity and fresh and chilled category mix grow across modern grocery retail
• Left unimproved, stockouts and overstock continue to erode sales and margin at the same time across the store network

• Demand-Based Ordering Methodology
• Store-Level Sell-Through Forecasting Model
• Distribution Centre Process Redesign by Category
• OTIF Tracking & Root-Cause Management System
• Category-Specific Fulfilment Standards (Fresh, Chilled, Ambient)
• OTIF Performance Dashboard
• Network-Wide Rollout Roadmap

10–15%

Improvement in on-shelf availability across categories (approx.)

92–96%

OTIF performance achieved post-implementation (approx.)

20%

Reduction in demand-based ordering forecast error (approx.)

15%

Reduction in overstock across slow-moving categories (approx.)

90%+

Store network covered by the new ordering model (approx.)

30%

Faster root-cause resolution of OTIF misses (approx.)

Store-level demand signals now connect directly to distribution centre execution through a demand-based ordering discipline and OTIF management system, addressing the root cause rather than the symptom. Category-specific fulfilment standards and a live OTIF dashboard keep on-shelf availability intact as the assortment and store network continue to evolve.